Perhaps its the utter lack of any regulation that baffles me, because blockchain I do kinda get, which is why I did put some money into IBM (yes, very un-Mustachian) after reading about their auto-encryption developments and its applicability in protecting personal info and consumer data. David Wendelken Gold bullion has several thousand years of history. January 3, 2018, 12:25 pm, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. On the other hand valuation of bitcoin has nothing to do with merits like this.What I dont understand is how spinning off a crypto currency XRP plays a role is this (please shed some light if you can). Well, shit. As long as the current monetary scam can be sustained, you are going to get very little traction. Hell if I believed that I would work my ass of taking EVERYTHING I could and putting it into cryptos! January 2, 2018, 8:01 pm. Faster and cheaper transactions (improvements are being made, Lightning network), Stable value (futures actually help volatility. If you introduced a brand new commodity to the world, would you expect the price to be stable? If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? Say I trade you a car for 1 bitcoin on Jan 8. Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms (ie. Like every state currency, it derives its worth out of the fact that the state says you can *always* pay your taxes with it (and that shops have to accept it). I'm a software engineer and my career was in cryptography and network security. Thats a really bad equivocation. That, is where were at. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? Unless, of course, it starts rolling *in* terrible new earnings compared to price, which is certainly possible. I try to lead people to conclude what I have. I have shown from above that their is value in digital currencies. If I lie to you and take your money, thats one thing. Because reasons, technology and internet! 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. Come back after a couple of years to this blog and let us see who is vindicated! Well said, Bill. how is this different than a crypto? There are dozens more data points just like these. And there are so many investors who buy Bitcoin without even understanding what Blockchain iswhich is just scary. Big ERN just recommended me to your blog and now I see that you beat me to the joke I just made. God speed my friend. January 17, 2018, 9:00 am, bitcoin is down 50% in the past three weeks. And if YOU had bought my fingernails halfway through this article at $100 instead of waiting until they were $70,000, you would be a paper millionaire too! I keep hearing everyone speculating on whether or not they should invest in Bitcoin, while at the same time googling what cryptocurrency and block chain is. For the first time in history, a machine can own money and make its own purchases. Dr-In-Debt Yes, that is your ground reality today. Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? If you dont have the Bitcoin in your own (encrypted, hardware, offline) wallet, you dont actually control the Bitcoin. This idea that you HAVE TO OWN ONE FULL BITCOIN is madness. No. Bitcoin has very little potential for the long term. obsolete. I totally agree with you on bitcoin. The main reason is Kenya has a mobile money system which allows you to use phone credit to pay for stuff or even just your own money. Its all the same stuff that people say about Gold, which is also a totally irrational waste of human investment energy. Its not about bitcoin anymore and unfortunately people still dont realize that. January 3, 2018, 7:36 am. And like investing in anything, its not a matter of altruism if Im right about the continuity of value in blockchains as measured by the value of its underlying currency, Ill see a healthy return on my investment. Its totally different when you lose your money by yourself. January 3, 2018, 3:18 pm, It has the most powerful force in human history behind it: Mathematics. Its interesting that you state the high water mark was $700,000, but now its $500k. Right! Im more inclined to trust contracts that cannot be broken. How else should people behave? Its cut a few years from our projected FIRE date. Cryptocurrencies are extremely risky. Seems an awful lot of marketing being pushed for something of questionable value. When the common person does it, it can cause very big problems. MMM calls Bitcoin Stupid and all these things as some kind of Ponzi Scheme! Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. I really would hope that MMM doesnt sell out like most social influencers but regardless not understanding the technology is no excuse for spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt about it. Appreciate the term scarcity. Today, Jan 26, at 11:30 AM, its trading around $31,850. Why? I think the far greater chance is your comment will be the joke. And what about physical forms of cash for private sales? Compared to bitcoin it uses only a fraction of energy. This financial libertarian streak is at the core of Bitcoin, and youll hear echoes of that sentiment in all the pro-crypto blogs and podcasts. Apparently they didnt like my edits, where I called out rogue nations for propping up BitCoin as a means to bypass sanctions. Guys. What, you think rich people dont argue with strangers on the internet? January 2, 2018, 7:05 pm. If youre in a position to do so, go for it. You all and Mr. Money Mustache are the ones that are collectively insane as you watch a technology that has the potential to benefit humanity possibly more than anything in history Pass you by as you are too blind in your indoctrinated social normative lenses to ever see the big picture. When everyone hypes something as the solution for everything it is going to be bad. Hows that any different. Tulips anyone? If youre in cryptos early, that difference skyrockets in favor of cryptos. January 3, 2018, 12:13 pm. Investors who valued Apple and Microsoft and rich now and that is not because they spotted a Ponzi scheme. Not a repeatable strategy though, Im sure. To be honest this whole article reads like a paid advertisement against crypto. There is some very interesting technology being developed in the cryptocurrency space right now, so be careful about throwing out the baby with the bath water. You sound like I poop-obsessed wing nut. Scrypt based coins like litecoin also have ASICs for them already, the L3+. Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. Its like trying to say Bank A is better then Z Bank because it has a fancy new way of getting money. This will be a fun article to read in 10 years. The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. Ive been wondering this too. An Aside: Why should we listen to you, Mustache? The shovel sellers are the real winners here. Max Thunder Places like Singapore, Estonia, Switzerland appear to already working on converting their systems to digital cash. So I also read a lot about investment bubbles and fundamentals and how to tell those apart. Scott, I think you may have that backwards: You mean that Bond *yields* werent historically low back then like they are now, right? Because it is backed by an entity that will ensure its value is honored and, to at least a small degree, those that are responsible for it are also accountable to the citizens of the US. January 3, 2018, 5:48 am. ), bastringue Thanks for sharing your opinion! It's natural to just look at the price itself and how much it's . And always the fail to mention in your article that XXX XXX is in the works to address this very problem.. The good news is that more transactions alone wouldnt raise the energy cost (although more transactions are currently impossible anyway), and if Bitcoin raised the price of electricity in one country it would probably just cause people to mine somewhere else. Imagine he same concept but at least an old beta max has some residual value if you still own tapes, Another great comparison. Seeing ATMs shows that it is slowly on the cusp of becoming more widely adapted and accepted. How is that even possible? Well so they can monitor everything and where all the funds go. Right now a nascent currency like Bitcoin is not able to handle the transactions in a similar fashion due to limited bandwidth, and people like you point that out and say, look it cannot even handle the current level of transactions how is this thing going to replace Visa or MasterCard? :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ, Another great satire- Seth Myers take in bitcoin. The amount of people who have posted on /r/personalfinance this year who sold crypto, then bought back in, and lost big, is astounding. I would recommend everyone to do their own research because many of what MMM says is plain wrong. In 5 years, I probably expect people to be cracking jokes on this shortsighted article. You made an unsupported claim. Cryptos may be the money of the future, but there is nothing sane about its rise this past year. With the rampant corruption on wall street is it really a surprise that the people wanted a decentralized currency? Mining other coins can still be profitable with graphics cards, mainly ETH/ETC. However, some cryptocurrencies DO have intrinsic value, which is computational power. Thank you. Ms99to1percent I wonder why. January 3, 2018, 4:28 pm. There is no wealth and no trade without these two things, so you might as well go all-in and trust people. I agree with you. Rule of thumb is never put everything in one basket. Do I trust the people at the federal reserve that helped cause the 2008 crash and didnt call it beforehand? The internet has provided many, many, many great investing opportunities since 1992 most of which would have been better than a BBS in 1992. However, taking a very small gamble doesnt hurt 99% is invested in s&p 500 and that will remain like that :). Most people understand nothing apart from my friend bought some BTC for $5k last month and now theyre worth $20k. January 2, 2018, 7:25 pm. January 2, 2018, 7:09 pm. Id like to apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were compelled to spend some of your life energy on that. A massive drop in the market is usually based on fear which once subsided, earnings from the 3k companies publicly traded will continue to churn out and eventually prices will come back up. NOTHING HAPPENS! Federal reserve banks and elected governments. WHY HAVE YOU NOT INVESTED YET!?!?! Only 8% of fiat currency is paper currently, the rest is digital, similar to Bitcoin and unlike Bitcoin, it cannot be copied and sold under another brand. Common arguments against cryptocurrencies are 1) energy consumption, 2) volatility, 3) blockchain is good, Bitcon is bad. There are other points that I cant think of right now. I put my money where my mouth is! A decentralised system where no human has the power to manipulate money supply is the best thing that any society can expect, to get its finances and economy in order. Undoubtedly the bubble will burst or mining difficulty will increase, but Ill be able to sell this supercomputer to some nerd play World of War Craft on. So, I use bitcoin to buy stuff with the gift cards from these people. Mr. Money Mustache on Twitter: "I dunno man. Last week people were writing obituaries as they do every year in January! Me, I am willing to speculate some, not on bitcoin as a currency, but on an bitcoin as an idea about the future. It also has technological demand. Your examples exactly prove the point: social media is great, but the first ones to take off werent the winner remember SixDegrees, Friendster, MySpace? Altcoins also stand to disrupt several huge, sleepy industries and solve real world problems. Unfortunately for most people that think they are missing out on everything, they are being lead to Coinbase and only buying the cheapest tokens available, namely Litecoin because Ethereum and Bitcoin have gotten so expensive. One of my coworkers at MMM-HQ works for nVidia, and part of his job is hunting down mining thieves who comandeer virtual servers (cloud computing) to mine coins on their behalf. Do you also believe that you have a prayer of creating an internationally recognized currency that simply skips out on national and international financial accounting laws? I hope it wasn't, but as he said in the article, it's none of our damn business. I was one of the first subscribers to this subreddit when it was invented. Or maybe you dont understand how exchanges work. I know you intentionally limit your exposure to news, but I did not realize that you were also living under a rock. Stocks and bonds and real estate can all enter into bubbles. Just one, just $2, and its (hopefully) only a sliver of your net worth. Im a younger kid so I definitely only heard of Betamax. I think your point about time wasted is very accurate. Great article! Simple answer is, they cannot have a secure private Blockchain. If the currency is highly valued, he would do well to keep hold of it! Or streaming music, and streaming movies! That means over the next 2 years, the Shiller P/E will be rolling out some of the terrible earnings numbers from the global financial crisis. > what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. Bitcoin didnt fly off the charts until a couple of months ago, after (maybe) finding itself in the perfect storm to take a bubble to biblical proportions. Good to add this article to the (hopefully) growing list of rational explanations debunking the appeal of what my 76 year-old Grandma, a consummate investor, rightfully calls funny money. It pains me to hear friends, some of whom I have to believe are intelligent people, describing their vast spoils and commitment to cryptos. Mr. Mustache. The Vigilante Perhaps us libertarian believers are wrong, and this can be maintained indefinitely. Its not that I enjoy seeing people suffer, but who am to talk them out of it? Your fiat paper would be worthless in 10 years and you will be washing your ass with it! About a 1/3 of it gets taken before the IRS even gets their grubs on it. The need for a cryptocurrency is very real. Latest being the retail apocalypse. How many here have switched from Mortgage Fast Pay to Money Market? When you say bitcoin is bad, I am asking how Fiat is any better at it? Read through this article for the contrarian view of things: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, Mr. Money Mustache MMM eludes to the crux of the issue surrounding the long term sustainability of the current generation of cryptocurrencies when he discusses the fact they are heavily unregulated and difficult to track for governments (everywhere). However, I go back to my main point Anyone who tells you they know how this experiment ends is already wrong. Personally i feel that the USD is rapidly approaching hyperinflation. We save up our purchases. Bitcoin mania isnt different from the dot.com mania or any other mania going back to the tulip mania. I 100% agree with what Vijay has been saying. You have unwittingly tripped up your own argument here. If that money is a key component to your wealth and retirement plan, you may want to consider something with a little less volatility. I saw a few currencies try out Proof of Stake, like Ark, where the holders of the currency choose who they want to do the mining. Because this whole blog is built around the idea that you should seek financial security not riches. More than triple the speed of Visa/MC. The real test of if you should be a cryptocurrency supporter:would you be exactly as passionate and spend the same amount of time thinking about it,if Bitcoin were still an obscure piece of code, worth less than one cent, and offered no chance of ever earning you any money? But again, that value is likely to be closer to $1/bulb than $10,000/bulb. Subsequently, some 70 years later, Im still using that toilet paper to finance my retirement, buy cars, houses and all sorts of things? January 2, 2018, 6:20 pm. Because theyve talked about doing away with the penny for YEARS now and yet, I still have pennies in my pocket. But yes: Bitcoin is silly at current prices. $100 per post is pretty motivating. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. January 3, 2018, 7:12 am. It would have sounded like science fiction, and even if he accepted it was possible he still wouldnt understand why anyone would want such a thing. Sounds like a bubble to me. Ideally something not too specific to bitcoin, like I dunno, power equipment? If cryptocurrency takes off, its much more likely that the winning one hasnt even been created yet, if history holds. You can buy puts in OSTK, MARA, GROW, OSTK and RIOT. January 15, 2018, 9:20 am. January 3, 2018, 12:14 pm. Since every appliance (computer, lightbulb or actual heater) is a 100% efficient electrical heater in a thermodynamic sense, you could shut off your heaters and run mining computers instead, to get the same amount of heat. Now, with that moral sermon out of the way, we might as well talk about why Bitcoin has become such a big thing, so we can separate the usefulness of the underlying technology called Blockchain, from the mania about how people have turned Bitcoin it into a big dumb lottery. I am beginning to get it Mattheus. These ideas are most problematic: MMM Says: Trust world governments to control fiat currencies. When you have a more efficient and fluid system that has zero manipulation from individuals, who will go back to a corrupt and manipulative system as it exists today? Blockchain is simply a nifty software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. Maybe a couple years from now when the mortgage is paid off and we have some play money/money we can afford to lose. In a sense one could swap bitcoin to USD and the article still stands. Got it. Speculation is essential to set a market price for anything. Finally, someone in here who understands economics and not just personal finance! Tulips. https://t.co/wfi8XTq77s" I like reading your posts, as well as all the others, that make specific points about the technologies or markets, that educate, or that offer opinions, or better, opinions with rationalizations. No guarantees that if bitcoin drops that it will ever come back. You WILL be wrong. You guys are sitting in fools paradise if you think anyone would want US dollars in the years to come. The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. As should everyone. About half a trillion dollars worth of gnashing and rending. Comparing bitcoin to tulip bulbs is intellectually lazy or deliberately misleading. Your Mom and Pop will surely use fiat paper, but probably not you in your later life, and certainly not your kids. Calling bitcoin stupid is shortsighted, and is usually what I here from people who missed out while I made money hand over fist in 2017. Thats crazy. There is some potential in the future for the blockchain technology but we are just so early that its hard to pick winners. Redirecting to /r/mrmoneymustache/comments/mz1sma/thoughts_on_mmm_why_bitcoin_is_stupid/h094ynt (308) Its diversification. Ive been trying to think of an entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the hysteria without investing in it. Note that he didnt say the underlying technology (blockchain) is stupid. Lastly, once KYC and AML is figured out, I have a hard time understanding why people would even want to use paper fiat instead of a digital fiat. Doubly so because it is now so broken by its development team that it is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that I know of that doesnt even work as currency. Now the ball has reached proportions where it could blow up anytime, and people in this forum are talking about the small change like the bubble and P/E ratio in the stock market. The problem with most folks here is, if you really want to know Bitcoin you have to Know Computing to really appreciate what this is all about. Noticed this ad on the corner of a website recently because we ALL need daily updates on an obscure piece of niche software technology! I cant help but feel that you already had a conclusion in mind before you started looking into cryptocurrencies. We? Although I do get where MMM is trying put an emphasis on the difference in investing and speculation. If FIRE is your goal, Id get out. But observing long term norms of valuation and noticing when they are out of whack is not called being speculative. Being knowledgeable about finance does not mean being knowledgeable about economics. It is speculating, many cryptocurrencies will go to zero and bubbles will burst along the way. Go educate yourself first. Amazing. The strategy isnt sustainable. And now in 2017, we sit and discuss how much better a world we have after the whole event. Unconfirmed BTC transactions already in the 6 digits now. I agree with Tawcan. It can be laundered. I imagine that we are both smiling at this point. When recessions hit, they need that ability to brunt the damage inflicted on people. Sorry for commenting again but the farms will not give you money or distribute it to those who cannot afford. You are right in one sense, this is one use you could put your fiat paper money to where Bitcoin cannot help! Well, SOMEONE has to keep the bankers & wealthy rich, right??? Id love to see MMM fingernail futures one day on my ticker chart. BURST ( http://burst-coin.org ) as an example uses PoC (Proof of Capacity). https://www.amazon.com/giftcardscams/b?ie=UTF8&node=15435487011, Ryan Schaap Here's the one I like: 25x the annual amount you spend/4% of your assets. January 2, 2018, 6:06 pm, Agreed! Thank you! I was so sad that I missed out again ;). Problems that dont bother your average North American, but could be very valuable to many people the world over. If you want to continue the ride, why not let the original investment of $28,000 ride? Im selling because I agree that cryptocurrencies have entered the bubble phase, but when it comes to theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. It can be forged. Well said! With BTC, how would a nation function and have institutions that protect its people? The act of speculating on an asset is what drives it to its proper price; they are critical players in the process of price discovery. January 11, 2018, 4:23 am. If you want to move away from current currencies then you would probably have better luck starting a Craigslist for bartering website where you cant list prices. This is what is known as " The 4% Rule ". Real currency ATMs is it funny to watch people withdraw cash to fund their drinking problem. PS: Brent, you write that if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. Let them hold on to their fiat currency if they like to. Your small actions will make the currency more stable and will take just a tiny bit of power and control away from our war-mongering governments. This has happened with EVERY speculative event throughout recent history. Mr. Money Mustache: Bitcoin isn't a currency it's like buying Beanie Babies The popular blogger, who retired debt-free at 30, says bitcoin's value is "imaginary." The popular blogger, who. What are the world currencies pegged to ? I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. LennStar Stay on the sidelines. Bitcoin is a universal currency and is not here to just replace your USD alone! Its closest to an MLM for me. And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. Gox, Bitfinex, and the various wallets and exchanges that have been hacked). Youre smiling because your preferred form of gambling resulted in a win congrats! Having interest rates all the way down to near 0% without a good exit plan should give you some pause how much you want to trust these people. John Tucker Even though it really is nothing but cyber reality. I invested and I am sitting pretty with my finances, where are you my friend? Read your history, it happens occasionally. 26 Replies 18313 Views March 27, 2020, 01:47:17 PM by talltexan: How do you press your kids to learn money habits? This one is just simply incorrect. Do you fault coffee or corn or wheat for being non-productive, or do you appreciate them as goods, at an appropriate price? "@origamicyber So true! After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustache's fingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supply so let's use them as the new world currency! As for spending your Bitcoin, I digress. There is a very good chance that this article will be the butt of jokes 5 years down the road, when the toilet paper fiat currencies are all passe! It will NEVER happen. Also, USD is not the only fiat in this world, although many Americans cannot see anything beyond that in their puny little shells that they develop and stay in such as yourself! Why should humanity be slaves to Banks and a few elites who control money supply? People are genuinely mad at me for calling out this speculative aspect (note that I did not criticize blockchain at all, just the idea of uninformed people betting on future price increases for the arbitrary coins). The most useful comments are those written with the goal of learning from or helping out other readers after reading the whole article and all the earlier comments. The FIRE movement continues to ignore #Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, rapidly emerging global asset class #whyFIREsucks. January 3, 2018, 4:51 pm. Let me know which one consumes more energy overall? Real investments require production and income. Also, just because something is open-source does not mean it cant be valuable. I made 400% and pulled them out. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/arts/design/has-the-art-market-become-an-unwitting-partner-in-crime.html. No, I am more inclined to trust economic models where the rules are clearly defined and cannot be changed, by anyone, ever. Its a constant struggle to find the right price. You know what else they have at bars? Ive been watching this situation for a few years, and assuming it would just blow over so we wouldnt have to talk about it here in this place where we are supposed to be busy improving our lives. Perhaps the reason this was not mentioned, is that you do not value the decentralized aspect of blockchain technology and are happy with a trusted third party (government) setup. With cryptocurrencies, you are literally betting that world governments, the G20, all major banks, The United Nations, financial institutions, exchanges, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, and all existing fiat currencies will change as radically as retail shopping has in the past 25 years. US is just one country in this big bad world, and not vice versa! Congratulations on your earnings. And so my joker friend, how many Fiat currencies exist on this planet, have you even counted? Not just stupid, insane. I agree totally. To compare with fiat currency, we need to consider fiat currencys rippling effect on society. Dan, I am not angry when someone says they dont want to invest in it. Why not somebody else's fingernail clippings? Basically for doing the equivalent of what my grocery store does when I use a credit card. It is already in Beta testing and will be released this year. Mr. Money Mustache and his then-wife retired at the age of 30 with a net worth of $600,000. Doesnt mean you cant speculate to help you get to FIRE sooner though. His rhetoric about trusting the wise elites of the Federal Reserve also irks me. I read somewhere about the power drain, and the ridiculous projections of power needs to get another X coins, and how it is going to black out the grid of the country. Mr. Money Mustache If I am able to speculate successfully and retire sooner, I would hope that the other Mustachians would cheer me on. Transactions takes as long as for banks (and soon banks will do trasnfers in seconds too, the real life tests have already started) and cost MORE. There is already ways to pay and use your crypto currencies and companies like request.network are working on ways facilitate swapping with cryptos and fiat using oracles and smart contracts on the ethereum network. You expect a currency that is controlled by individual owners can be reliably used across national boundaries? There are third-party solutions, but they add complexity. 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Compared to bitcoin, I have to own one FULL bitcoin is 50... % rule & quot ; I dunno, power equipment with fiat currency if they like to apologize on of. Problems that dont bother your average North American, but there is nothing sane about its this... Where are you my friend bought some BTC for $ 5k last and... Sliver of your net worth of $ 600,000 am by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds early. Why should humanity be slaves to Banks and a few elites who control supply... In the works to address this very problem says is plain wrong, Another satire-. Be bad friend bought some BTC for $ 5k last month and now theyre worth $ 20k not else. Theyre worth $ 20k position to do so, go for it rule & quot ; very big.!, purchasing power is concentrated with the gift cards from these people with! Ad on the cusp of becoming more widely adapted and accepted original investment $! Bank a is better then Z Bank because it has the most force! Nation function and have institutions that protect its people think Anyone would want us dollars in the past weeks. Couple years from now when the Mortgage is paid off and we have after the whole event for commenting but... Greater chance is your ground reality today money, thats one thing decentralized?. And come to our senses, the richer our world will be that beat! Today, Jan 26, at 11:30 am, bitcoin is down %. Most problematic: MMM says is plain wrong this whole blog is built around the that. To you and take your money, thats one thing not mean being about. Federal reserve also irks me daily updates on an obscure piece of niche software!. Be released this year entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the difference in investing and speculation to read 10!